More observations from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, published in late November: The comprehensive study, outlined above, also forecast that global renewable energy output is likely to grow at 3.5-7% compounded rate (dependent on carbon-target scenarios) over the next twenty five years. By 2035, renewables could provide up to a third of all electricity …
Transportation Politics It’s now old news, but surprisingly underreported outside energy circles but….. former Vice President Al Gore acknowledged that his tie-breaking vote to deny an MTBE waiver, while promoting ethanol as the octane enhancement of choice, was “not good policy.” He noted that massive subsidies of unproven, first generation, fuels, was “too much,” …
The Poly Silicon Glut Silicon prices are crashing. After five years of accelerating investment, spot prices as much as 20x leading edge costs, the rough estimate is that there is 2x as much ‘PV silicon’ as needed for the 2011 end market demand. Since most steps downstream of silicon have very low capital intensity, most …
Renewables With the recent revival of one of Boston’s Hall of Fame financiers, I checked into the SEC’s FAQ for the following: “What is a Ponzi scheme? A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that involves the payment of purported returns to existing investors from funds contributed by new investors. Ponzi scheme organizers often solicit …
Venture Capital – Chasing the Wrong Bus?? US Venture Capital funding of cleantech fell 55%, YoY, in Q3. However, the ‘efficiency’ segment grew 6% in the same period on 21% more deals. Reasons for these divergent trends abound, but include (a) the mis-fit of the VC model concepts that do not exploit Moore’s Law, …
inevitable collapse or cyclical victims? Solar fundamentals continue to deteriorate, despite increasing project economics. Module prices are about 20% lower than a year ago, and ahead of forecasts that they slip below $1/watt (module) by early 2012. However, for the first time in memory, price elasticity is not helping the sector. As expected, first …
“Can’t Anyone Here Play this Game?” Although most of the stocks are well below their IPO price, bankers claim that the industrial biotech boom (over fifty venture-funded private companies) continues, with several more filings in process. As a whole, the technology offers the prospect of energy and specialty chemicals from renewable resources, but the route …
Fundamentals getting better all the time A well known LNG glut to 2015 has evaporated as Japan struggles to offset lost nuclear power with both oil and gas imports. Secular demand beyond 2015 is also rising and at extremely attractive prices. India’s Petronet, the country’s leading operator of LNG regas assets in country, projects that, …
State of the State – Half a Year after Fukushima It’s been less than six months since the human, environmental, and economic tragedies of the Japanese earthquake/tsunami and Fukushima accident. The effect on global nuclear power has not been uniform — US plans continue to move toward late decade construction. Several Westinghouse/Toshiba designs are …
Transportation – Inter-Concept Competition Coming? US gasoline prices have retreated from early May highs (see above), but are likely to move with underlying crude as the next spike unfolds. Meanwhile, auto, truck, and engine manufacturers rush to develop battery and natural gas-based transport options, as the US oil/gas ratio continues well over 20x (versus historical …