Investors and operators are flocking to the region in search of cheap feedstock for refining, chemicals, and energy intensive industrial opportunities. While it is difficult to imagine shortages and delays in such an infrastructure-rich region (Keystone XL excepted!), front end projects are already falling victim to sticker shock (permitting another matter!). It’s been 25 …
Fukushima Tragedy Drives Expensive Renewables Policy Under a new incentive program since mid last year, Japanese solar installations are poised to triple from 2012 to 7 GW. This is well ahead of estimates of “only a double” as recently as summer The average Japanese electricity tariff (2013) is around $0.30/kwh, trailing only a few …
Kazakhstan’s Kashagan – “…the downside of Elephant Fields” “In the beginning” (discovered in 2000), Kashagan was the most prolific oil discovery since the North Sea/Alaska fields of the late 1960s. However, as we suspect from the arduous journey to startup – high sulfur, land locked, frontier, with rudderless leadership and a corrupt resource host – …
EPA & the Biofuels Back Track The (mostly corn-based ethanol) biofuel industry is, understandably, quite disappointed in the confirmation of earlier rumors that the renewable fuel mandate would be scaled back in 2014-5. The revised proposal trims roughly 10% from the ‘first generation’ volume, roughly in line with lower US gasoline consumption since enactment of …
What’s Bigger? Gas or Renewables – Fired Power? The International Energy Agency (IEA), traditionally the most conservative and hydrocarbon-based energy forecaster, now believes that, by 2018, power generation (not capacity!) from renewables will exceed total that of natural gas and twice the size of nuclear power. (http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/june/name,39156,en.html) – accounting for a quarter of global generation. …
New Solutions for US Stranded Gas? There is increasing entrepreneurial effort to monetize stranded/low value gas in North America’s oil/liquids-based basins, as well as highly mature gas wells. A range of startups, including ‘micro-refineries,’ mini-LNG, low cost micro-turbines, and lower cost compression (with higher liquids capability) are all aiming at the same opportunity. A major …
Investment Opportunity for Small Hydro?? Of course, the IEAs definition of renewables includes hydro, which accounts for about 80% of the 2018 forecast. This is all the more impressive given hydropower’s stall in developed markets, largely due to environmental pressures. However, a recent proposal by the Obama administration may bring new projects to the US …
Biofuels – Another (not unexpected) Commercialization Disappointment Last week, Amyris, one of the most favored synthetic biology/biofuels entries, substantially cut its production forecast for 2012. The company has commenced operation in a ‘commercial scale’ facility but has been unable to improve product yield and quality of high value specialty chemicals. In general, the sector players …
Solar Economics Continue to Improve Lastly, a couple comments on ‘old fashioned renewables,’ i.e. solar and wind. Global solar installations rose about 10% in 2011, although module revenues probably fell over 10% (and inventories exploded in 2H ’11!). Italy surpassed Germany as the single largest market, despite dramatic cuts in both subsidies although, without subsidies. …
The answer might surprise you. An enterprising research analyst has determined, from grass roots work, that significant funding behind the anti-fracking movement comes from the Middle East – Saudi, UAE, and Qatari funds. Apparently, the prospect of significant oil and gas production has caught the interest of the world’s largest producers of each hydrocarbon. …