State of the State – Half a Year after Fukushima
It’s been less than six months since the human, environmental, and economic tragedies of the Japanese earthquake/tsunami and Fukushima accident. The effect on global nuclear power has not been uniform — US plans continue to move toward late decade construction. Several Westinghouse/Toshiba designs are likely to receive certification this year, the next step on the way to construction and startup by 2020. It’s still early for modular designs, but some expect one of the proposals to seek certification soon.
Meanwhile, Chinese projects (along with the few currently operating reactors) have undergone extensive (we are told) review, but there is no signal of a slowdown against the 75+ GW plan by 2020.
It is also interesting to look at Japan’s pre-Fukushima long term plan, versus the more likely/necessary outlook:
An analysis of the most reasonable options, considering cost elasticity, reliability, and emissions concerns, seems to point to significant LNG/gas-fired power, wind turbines (and upgraded grid reliability), and clean coal. LNG demand is 23% higher, YoY, this summer (and crude-linked LNG prices are rising despite a sloppy oil market!). Companies best positioned to benefit from wind, LNG, and clean coal, include Mitsubishi Heavy, Fuji Heavy, Toshiba, and Hitachi. Sharp, Kyocera, and Panasonic are the leading domestic solar PV manufacturers.