Wind My father has a t-shirt that reads “from ‘zero to 80 in nothing flat.’ In the beginning (2005), China’s wind plans were modest — from a standing start to 20 GW installed by 2010. Having exceeded that target during 2009 (with 13.5 GW installed), the 2020 goal moved up …
Global Natural Gas – Interesting Trends have investment implications A by-product of very weak US natural gas prices, cheap chemical feedstocks, is taking hold as the US is probably the second lowest cost producer of commodity chemicals in the world, next to the Middle East. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s decade long quest for natural gas …
OPEC – “What, We Worry???” Iraq has plans to produce up to 12 million b/d by 2020. Outsiders, including former head of Saudi Aramco, think they’ll be lucky to get to 4.3 by 2015. This is BELOW a skeptical consensus, and also BELOW Iran’s likely output (4 mm b/d today and marginally higher – at …
Going Nu-cular i attended a Uranium Conference in Toronto last week. Key takeaways for this source of low carbon baseload electric power: a) Most estimates of Chinese nuclear expansion plans are understated, even by the Chinese, who have doubled their 2020 plan, to 75 plants, since 2005. b) China’s ramp to 2020 will requires about …
Chinese Solar Industry Getting Rational? Earlier this year, the ’55th Chinese Solar IPO’ barely made it out the door. Five years of ‘free water, free electricity, free disposal, and free capital’ had finally wrought havoc with the business models of Chinese assemblers. As Chinese Powers that Be struggled to meet five year energy efficiency commitments, …
Big Boxes Go Solar As reported a few months ago, Its coming (finally) – Massive roof-top solar at Big Box Retail. Wal-Mart has expanded an experimental roof-top solar program with an agreement to lease panels and buy the electricity from modules on top of 20-30 stores in Arizona and California. These Big Boxes, whose footprints …
OPEC at 50 In September, OPEC celebrated the 50th anniversary of its founding meeting, in Baghdad, in 1960. That was a different world: Much of OPEC volume was at the order of international partners (Exxon, etc) in key resources in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc, who also set a ‘posting price,’ for the product. A …
State of the Market While lower fossil fuel prices, surplus electricity (outside the Middle East!), and weak financing markets would argue against renewables fundamentals, this is not the case in many markets. a) China added almost 13 GW of wind power in 2009, and is on track for somewhat higher installations in 2010. However, of …
Oil Markets The effect of economic prospects has generally replaced the US dollar as the leading correlation with oil prices in recent months, as inventories continue to rise in all markets. Easy comps have driven strong YoY consumption rates in Germany, while tougher comps (extra storage plus stimulus) have hindered similar period comparisons in China. …
It’s hard to focus on the fundamental energy environment, whether conventional or renewable, without continued consideration of the Macondo explosion and massive oil spill. I’m going to try, since so much else is ongoing, but, first…. Macondo Comment du Jour Just as noted in the last Issue, the estimated flow rate from the wellbore continues …