Going Nu-cular
i attended a Uranium Conference in Toronto last week. Key takeaways for this source of low carbon baseload electric power:
a) Most estimates of Chinese nuclear expansion plans are understated, even by the Chinese, who have doubled their 2020 plan, to 75 plants, since 2005.
b) China’s ramp to 2020 will requires about 300 million pounds of uranium, including core loading, operations, and safety inventory. Compares to today’s 360 million pound market.
c) The United States produces roughly 10% of its own uranium requirements, purchasing a third from Russia (expiring 2013), 20% from Canada. Reasonable economic resource is available in the US, but the permitting process has been so onerous that the prospects to be self sufficient are probably over a decade away – if possible at all.
With the possible alignment of Russian and Kazakhstan (one third of global supply) interests, the availability of ex-US uranium supply may be limited as 60 plants, in construction, come onstream ahead of another 150 in the planning stage. It is possible that the failure of US Energy policy is more apparent for nuclear power than any other energy source