It’s hard to focus on the fundamental energy environment, whether conventional or renewable, without continued consideration of the Macondo explosion and massive oil spill. I’m going to try, since so much else is ongoing, but, first…. Macondo Comment du Jour Just as noted in the last Issue, the estimated flow rate from the wellbore continues …
Spain – Backing away from a Subsidy Program Run Amock Some renewables projects have become ensnared in the Post Macondo regulatory environment. NRG Energy says that its offshore wind power project (Delaware) could take 3x longer than expected to receive approval, after the spill drove a reorganization of (all) federal offshore regulation. Spain takes another …
Geopolitics Comes to the US Gulf of Mexico If oil geopolitics are defined as the regional effects of politics on global oil/energy fundamentals (or security), perhaps the most important geopolitical events of the past six months have not been in the Middle East, or Korea, but the US Gulf of Mexico, where the most energy …
Renewable energy trends over the past several months have diverged, both geographically and by type. Economic pressures have accelerated the withdrawal of solar subsidies, particularly in Spain and Germany, from an overly generous level. However, despite the reduced support, project returns have been so robust (10-30% from Germany to Italy), that solar PV demand forecasts …
(After a brief hiatus, mostly tied to ‘Macondo-Fatigue,’ we’re back, with more observations on the broad energy scene. I thought I’d open with a review and update of the initial outlook from the first issue, in March. ) My view of oil supply fundamentals is largely unchanged from Issue 1 – a hole in the …
Oil Spill Continues to Dominate the Energy Scene – Commentary I commented in the last issue on some broader implications of the deadly TransOcean Horizon and Massey Mine explosions, including contrast with the first approved offshore wind farm. As a ‘confirming list’ of disturbing shortcuts, poor maintenance, fingerprinting, headlines the escalating environmental tragedy, the …
Renewables and Smart Grid – MIT speaks out Last week, I attended a BofA/Merrill Lynch Cleantech Seminar, featuring presentations by MIT professors on Global Warming, Solar, Wind, Smart Grid, and Storage. While an academic setting might appear to be inappropriate for practical, nearer term, investors, some views were startling: 1) Without judging the conclusions, the …
All Eyes on the Gulf of Mexico, but How about Beyond?? As failure to control the Macondo oil spill passes the six week and, possibly, half million barrel mark, frustration grows, similarly, on many fronts – with the apparent, negligence or very poor judgment which led to the explosion, with the failure of Modern Technology …
Renewables Anecdotes and Implications 1) By the end of 2010, Germany’s installed wind and solar capacity could reach 40 gigawatts. Peak demand averages about 90 GW on a warm summer day. On a warm, sunny, breezy day, Germany may satisfy 40-50% of its peak demand with renewable electricity, possibly pushing low cost base loads …
The not so slow motion demise of the Euro has major energy implications. Iran has, in the past, sold most of its crude in Euros (still trying to update the current exposure). Thus, not only have they lost 20% of the value of their crude from the mid $80 level, but another 20% …