Other Oil Macro Leading energy agencies and consultants have been raising their 2010-11 demand forecasts, now averaging about 1.6 million b/d growth, versus 1.4 mmb/d earlier this year. And for the first time in awhile, they have NOT been cutting their nonOPEC outlook. However, after a several year hold in new projects, the nonOPEC …
Anecdotes and Implications 1) First Solar has increased its view of 2010 solar PV installations from 7.5 to 9.9 Gigawatts, worldwide. 2) Several investment banks are working on structured products (private or public) to serve institutional or public investors seeking lower risk opportunities in renewable power projects. While direct placement of larger projects …
Russia Interesting that in a world of $80+ oil, Iran has added to its fleet of leased tankers, for storage of produced crude. This is consistent with the widening light heavy spreads (reflecting excess supply of lower grade product. There are anecdotes, from multiple sources, which point to buyer reluctance to purchase Iranian crude, along …
Energy Macro – Oil Spill takes Center Stage – Commentary The deadly TransOcean Horizon explosion has given way to a building environmental disaster in the US Gulf of Mexico, with potentially significant implications for a number of energy sectors. Offshore drilling has always been complex and potentially dangerous, involving high technology sensing and controls …
President Obama & Offshore Drilling – A “Nixon to China Moment?” Last week, President Obama announced, with some fanfare, a plan to open certain offshore regions (Continental Shelf from Virginia to Florida, a small area in the Eastern GOM, about 100 miles from Florida) to oil/gas exploration, while “ordering further study on others (primarily …
Markets The strength in crude oil, particularly during the first quarter, finally seems to have broken with the macro oil-(weighted basket) currency trade. Even before the Greek/PIGS debt crisis, the correlation was breaking down, possibly with increasing signs of global economic recovery. Perhaps this is in anticipation of the real currency winner against both USD …
Renewables Anecdotes and Implications 1) In the last month, several interesting news items on solar, focusing on the Middle East. First Solar has joined the Desertec (www.desertec.org) consortium, which plans to construct a massive ($500 billion investment) network of solar-powered electric generation capacity, in Northern Africa, to supply Europe. Siemens, ABB, and a collection of …
Natural Gas – Lots of ex-North American Activity!! In this note, I should comment on global natural gas. Despite apparent oversupply (everywhere!!), via both heavy LNG startups and relatively weak demand (Europe, Japan/Korea), the product has a very bright future. Pricing is, understandably, weak, with oil/gas ratios of 20:1 in North America, 13:1 in Europe, …
Shale Gas – The Revolution is Underway! Lastly, natural gas continues to benefit from headline opportunity. This week’s Economist highlights the global potential for shale gas, which may be in greater abundance and at lower costs than conventional gas or crude oil. Coincidentally, a Barclay’s note predicts that the Marcellus Shale (Pennsylvania/West Virginia/New York) …
Chinese Win Iraqi Project A Chinese consortium had bid $21.40/barrel to rehabilitate and manage a small oilfield in Iraq, near the Iranian border. Due to location, the Iraqi government did not want a Western company to participate. When Iraq told the Chinese bidders that they would not pay more than $2.40/barrel, the consortium hit the …