It’s B-a-a-a-a-ck!
Quietly, since the 2009 meltdown (orders down 25%, including 50%+ in the US), interest in wind power has recovered quite nicely — no 50% higher than the mid ’09 trough, and 15% over pre-recession highs. Leadership mix has shifted, with two Chinese ‘home grown’ vendors in the Global Top Five (end of 2010), and a dramatic fall from grace for Gamesa (second to seventh from 2008, as Spanish end market collapsed). The major shift in 2011 is the dramatic improvement by Siemens with the second highest order rate (Q2) and the largest backlog. Turbine prices are about 25% below the 2008 peak, and probably 35% lower in China, translating to 15-25% lower installed costs. The real winners from the turbine glut are the customers (Iberdrola, ENEL Green, EDF Renewables, etc), whose project economics look a lot more favorable amidst the turbine glut.
Vendors are moving on to higher capability designs, including direct drive (fewer moving parts, cheaper to operate) for offshore applications – Siemens is the leader here, with competitive offerings from Vestas, GE, and (soon) Sinovel and Ming Yang. Capability is also on the rise, with designs up to 7 megawatts/stick). offshore wind power is not yet economic, but improving quickly versus Europe’s elevated power costs (generally 50-100% premium to US).