Solar Economics Continue to Improve Lastly, a couple comments on ‘old fashioned renewables,’ i.e. solar and wind. Global solar installations rose about 10% in 2011, although module revenues probably fell over 10% (and inventories exploded in 2H ’11!). Italy surpassed Germany as the single largest market, despite dramatic cuts in both subsidies although, without subsidies. …
Watch this Space but keep your money in your wallet! It’s still early, but a number of practitioners of ‘second generation’ cellulosic chemistry are nearing key milestones. GEVO, which has been renovating corn-to-ethanol refineries to produce higher valued chemicals/fuels, should make commercial volumes in its first facility by mid-year. Zeachem (private) has started …
Where the European Union “Works” This brings to mind another observation. While it’s clear from other news that the financial concept of the European Union is structurally flawed, there are real operational successes on the energy front, with/without budget-busting subsidies. Continent-wide integration of the power grid, PLUS the ample availability of low cost, rapid …
Don’t Hold Your Breath Waiting for Grid Competitive Economics At a recent conference, I had the chance to talk with a prospective developer of offshore wind projects in Massachusetts and New Jersey, two states with excellent resource, growing renewable energy requirements (from state legislation), and among the highest electricity prices in the United States. The …
Cratering Costs have Significant Implications The conspiracy theory on Chinese solar industry has long been that the near-hundred producers would use rest-of-world incentives to build volume and cut costs, only to install domestically as costs approach local parity. We’re not there yet, but with local module prices under a dollar a watt (down 75% …
More observations from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, published in late November: The comprehensive study, outlined above, also forecast that global renewable energy output is likely to grow at 3.5-7% compounded rate (dependent on carbon-target scenarios) over the next twenty five years. By 2035, renewables could provide up to a third of all electricity …
Transportation Politics It’s now old news, but surprisingly underreported outside energy circles but….. former Vice President Al Gore acknowledged that his tie-breaking vote to deny an MTBE waiver, while promoting ethanol as the octane enhancement of choice, was “not good policy.” He noted that massive subsidies of unproven, first generation, fuels, was “too much,” …
Mid Term Elections Rarely are US political events very important within the Energy Geopolitik, but this week’s mid-term elections have clear implications for several energy matters. With the Republican takeover of the US House of Representatives, several evolving trends are under attack 1) National ‘frac-regulation’ is probably dead. Unless groundwater or other damage …
Some Good News (I think) As if Texas doesn’t have enough energy already (nearly 60% of all oil/gas income occurs in Rick Perry’s home), the state has become (with Iowa) the biggest wind-powered region in the US, with over 9 GW of installed capacity (9% of its total). The state is building a high voltage …
The Poly Silicon Glut Silicon prices are crashing. After five years of accelerating investment, spot prices as much as 20x leading edge costs, the rough estimate is that there is 2x as much ‘PV silicon’ as needed for the 2011 end market demand. Since most steps downstream of silicon have very low capital intensity, most …