Hydrocarbons & Chemicals

Middle East – November 2011

The Capital Crunch about to Reach the Middle East? Now, A well-connected Middle East Consultant has updated its rolling 5 year capital program for the region, which highlights the ‘rubber meets the road’ of these programs. The report segments capital needs into several categories, including crude oil production, natural gas/energy infrastructure, water, and power generation.

Solar & Solyndra – September 2011

inevitable collapse or cyclical victims?   Solar fundamentals continue to deteriorate, despite increasing project economics. Module prices are about 20% lower than a year ago, and ahead of forecasts that they slip below $1/watt (module) by early 2012.  However, for the first time in memory, price elasticity is not helping the sector.  As expected, first

International LNG – September 2011

 Fundamentals getting better all the time A well known LNG glut to 2015 has evaporated as Japan struggles to offset lost nuclear power with both oil and gas imports. Secular demand beyond 2015 is also rising and at extremely attractive prices. India’s Petronet, the country’s leading operator of LNG regas assets in country, projects that,

Natural Gas – September 2011

 While the US struggles to pass an “Act,” the Free Market moves ahead   With all the talk about shovel ready/other job creating infrastructure investment, the noise around the proposed Natural Gas Act continues at a high pitch. Infighting among/between energy producers and consumers threatens any “act”-ion at all. Opponents include Koch Industries (refiner), the

Oil Markets – August 2011

  Oil and the Markets   The oil price seems secondary to the gyrations of global markets, accounting, in part, for the delay in this note, although US consumption continues to support weakening economic activity (consumption down 3% YoY for most of the summer).  While it’s not easy to allocate reduced US consumption between energy

Transportation – June 2011

Transportation – Inter-Concept Competition Coming? US gasoline prices have retreated from early May highs (see above), but are likely to move with underlying crude as the next spike unfolds.  Meanwhile, auto, truck, and engine manufacturers rush to develop battery and natural gas-based transport options, as the US oil/gas ratio continues well over 20x (versus historical

Geopolitics – June 2011

Middle East and Euro Geopolitics This month’s copy of Sustainable Energy and Geopolitics, published by MEES (Middle East Economic Survey), takes a new turn — almost entirely devoted to the State of the Nuclear Power World, post Fukushima. This is an important statement, given the region’s plans to build up to 20 nuclear power plants,

Oil Markets – June 2011

It’s been a strange month — plenty of reasons to be MORE bullish on conventional energy fundamentals, but a clear regression in investor sentiment, reflected in crude prices. My view is that there should be an oil price spike, but that the last six months are not ‘it,’ as fear, violence, weather, and QE2 (for

North America Gas – May 2011

  Capital Spending is Back!  More Domestic Winners from the US Shale Gas Boom – “Downstream” Capital Spending is Back   Low natural gas liquids prices, due in part to the shale boom, have turned North America into one of the lowest cost suppliers of chemicals, worldwide.  Robust earnings results from Dow, Lyondell Basell, and

Energy & the Economy – May 2011

This time it’s Different (!)   At a macro level, the reality of higher gasoline prices is not quite as severe as prior cycles. While much higher crude oil prices have brought misery to drivers (including truckers), much lower natural gas prices are bringing pleasure to many of the same consumers. From 2004-7, higher oil