The Oil Price So Brent has retreated 25% from $126 to ‘below par’ in less than two and a half months, and WTI, the US benchmark, is 20% lower over the same timeframe. What’s changed? Then (March 22) Amidst rising Iranian concerns and news that the IEA would recommend release of crude/product from various Strategic …
The Oil Price So Brent has retreated 25% from $126 to ‘below par’ in less than two and a half months, and WTI, the US benchmark, is 20% lower over the same timeframe. What’s changed? Then (March 22) Amidst rising Iranian concerns and news that the IEA would recommend release of crude/product from various Strategic …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics – Continued Confusion but Market Tightness Overstated Our view on the 2012 oil market has been that higher prices would be more justified by actual outages (Sudan, Yemen, Russia, Syria) than perceived disruptions (Iran). And so it has been, to date, abetted by product dislocations in the US. Add to supply …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics – “It’s Complicated” During late 2011, analysts (and experts!) were cutting their oil price and demand forecasts. Less than 60 days into the new year, they’re only partly right (or already partly wrong). Demand is, arguably, even more concerning than expected, with Spain/Portugal consumption lower by high single digits, and US …
The answer might surprise you. An enterprising research analyst has determined, from grass roots work, that significant funding behind the anti-fracking movement comes from the Middle East – Saudi, UAE, and Qatari funds. Apparently, the prospect of significant oil and gas production has caught the interest of the world’s largest producers of each hydrocarbon. …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics I attended the Gulf Petrochemical Forum in Dubai last month, meeting with chemical and energy executives, along with a regional economist and a cleantech/industrial entrepreneur. I’ll just note some macro/energy issues that may be of interest to readers I have plenty of background to most of the comments below. Feel …
North American Operators Look Abroad As the US shale boom has shifted the gas side of the global energy landscape, US operators and geologists have looked abroad. A recent IEA survey has highlighted the resource opportunities on every continent, with special interest in Europe and China. Most majors and quite a few independent ‘shale-hardened’ E&Ps …
The Oil Price What to say? The correlation of the oil price with the US dollar (and QE 2 and beyond) continues to astound, but also moves with global equity markets (88% correlation with the S&P, according to Mike Rothman, Cornerstone Analytics). I would argue that the real driver has finally shifted (from …
Mid Term Elections Rarely are US political events very important within the Energy Geopolitik, but this week’s mid-term elections have clear implications for several energy matters. With the Republican takeover of the US House of Representatives, several evolving trends are under attack 1) National ‘frac-regulation’ is probably dead. Unless groundwater or other damage …
Global Energy Subsidies – 2010 Every year, the International Energy Agency publishes an assessment of global energy subsidies, updated for price and policy adjustments. I can’t tell if they count everything, but, coincidentally, the US DOE concluded a domestic analysis, which provides some additional information. The IEA estimates over $400 billion in oil/gas/electricity subsidies, worldwide, …