For months, pundits have focused on rising production, mostly from US shales, sluggish demand, primarily from European stagnation and disappointing Chinese activity, aided by conspiratorial Saudi/OPEC intentions. And there is no doubt that some of this is true…last year, today, and probably over the near term. The underlying oil (physical) picture stands, roughly, at 91 …
Kazakhstan’s Kashagan – “…the downside of Elephant Fields” “In the beginning” (discovered in 2000), Kashagan was the most prolific oil discovery since the North Sea/Alaska fields of the late 1960s. However, as we suspect from the arduous journey to startup – high sulfur, land locked, frontier, with rudderless leadership and a corrupt resource host – …
The Oil Price So Brent has retreated 25% from $126 to ‘below par’ in less than two and a half months, and WTI, the US benchmark, is 20% lower over the same timeframe. What’s changed? Then (March 22) Amidst rising Iranian concerns and news that the IEA would recommend release of crude/product from various Strategic …
The Oil Price So Brent has retreated 25% from $126 to ‘below par’ in less than two and a half months, and WTI, the US benchmark, is 20% lower over the same timeframe. What’s changed? Then (March 22) Amidst rising Iranian concerns and news that the IEA would recommend release of crude/product from various Strategic …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics – Continued Confusion but Market Tightness Overstated Our view on the 2012 oil market has been that higher prices would be more justified by actual outages (Sudan, Yemen, Russia, Syria) than perceived disruptions (Iran). And so it has been, to date, abetted by product dislocations in the US. Add to supply …
Oil and the Markets The oil price seems secondary to the gyrations of global markets, accounting, in part, for the delay in this note, although US consumption continues to support weakening economic activity (consumption down 3% YoY for most of the summer). While it’s not easy to allocate reduced US consumption between energy …
It’s been a strange month — plenty of reasons to be MORE bullish on conventional energy fundamentals, but a clear regression in investor sentiment, reflected in crude prices. My view is that there should be an oil price spike, but that the last six months are not ‘it,’ as fear, violence, weather, and QE2 (for …
Big Oil Goes CleanTech Earlier this month, French Oil Major TOTAL announced an agreement to tender for 60% of SunPower (SPWRA), one of the leading solar module manufacturers and distributor/project developers, at a 43% premium to the previous market close. TOT is not new to the non-hydrocarbon energy market, having acquired some thin film …
Traditionally, the gasoline inventory build ahead of the US driving season, concurrent with the “seasonal trade” for refiners, leads to a price peak within a week or two of Memorial Day. This year, while the Q1 run-up is not that unusual, it follows a dramatic rise during 2010, and, perhaps for the first time, reflects …
Energy Macro – Oil Spill takes Center Stage – Commentary The deadly TransOcean Horizon explosion has given way to a building environmental disaster in the US Gulf of Mexico, with potentially significant implications for a number of energy sectors. Offshore drilling has always been complex and potentially dangerous, involving high technology sensing and controls …