Fukushima Tragedy Drives Expensive Renewables Policy Under a new incentive program since mid last year, Japanese solar installations are poised to triple from 2012 to 7 GW. This is well ahead of estimates of “only a double” as recently as summer The average Japanese electricity tariff (2013) is around $0.30/kwh, trailing only a few …
Kazakhstan’s Kashagan – “…the downside of Elephant Fields” “In the beginning” (discovered in 2000), Kashagan was the most prolific oil discovery since the North Sea/Alaska fields of the late 1960s. However, as we suspect from the arduous journey to startup – high sulfur, land locked, frontier, with rudderless leadership and a corrupt resource host – …
EPA & the Biofuels Back Track The (mostly corn-based ethanol) biofuel industry is, understandably, quite disappointed in the confirmation of earlier rumors that the renewable fuel mandate would be scaled back in 2014-5. The revised proposal trims roughly 10% from the ‘first generation’ volume, roughly in line with lower US gasoline consumption since enactment of …
What’s Bigger? Gas or Renewables – Fired Power? The International Energy Agency (IEA), traditionally the most conservative and hydrocarbon-based energy forecaster, now believes that, by 2018, power generation (not capacity!) from renewables will exceed total that of natural gas and twice the size of nuclear power. (http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/june/name,39156,en.html) – accounting for a quarter of global generation. …
New Solutions for US Stranded Gas? There is increasing entrepreneurial effort to monetize stranded/low value gas in North America’s oil/liquids-based basins, as well as highly mature gas wells. A range of startups, including ‘micro-refineries,’ mini-LNG, low cost micro-turbines, and lower cost compression (with higher liquids capability) are all aiming at the same opportunity. A major …
Investment Opportunity for Small Hydro?? Of course, the IEAs definition of renewables includes hydro, which accounts for about 80% of the 2018 forecast. This is all the more impressive given hydropower’s stall in developed markets, largely due to environmental pressures. However, a recent proposal by the Obama administration may bring new projects to the US …
Biofuels – Another (not unexpected) Commercialization Disappointment Last week, Amyris, one of the most favored synthetic biology/biofuels entries, substantially cut its production forecast for 2012. The company has commenced operation in a ‘commercial scale’ facility but has been unable to improve product yield and quality of high value specialty chemicals. In general, the sector players …
Solar Economics Continue to Improve Lastly, a couple comments on ‘old fashioned renewables,’ i.e. solar and wind. Global solar installations rose about 10% in 2011, although module revenues probably fell over 10% (and inventories exploded in 2H ’11!). Italy surpassed Germany as the single largest market, despite dramatic cuts in both subsidies although, without subsidies. …
The answer might surprise you. An enterprising research analyst has determined, from grass roots work, that significant funding behind the anti-fracking movement comes from the Middle East – Saudi, UAE, and Qatari funds. Apparently, the prospect of significant oil and gas production has caught the interest of the world’s largest producers of each hydrocarbon. …
Not dead yet…. Cheap natural gas is not the only headwind for the renewables uber alles perspective/trend. The roadmap to improved efficiency seems clear, and long-lived, both for gasoline and diesel fuels. While automakers only seem (generally) to develop more fuel efficient vehicles under the greatest duress (i.e. mandates), there is plenty of opportunity, …