Policy & Geopolitics

Middle East – June 2011

OPEC Fails to “Expand the Quota” – What’s the Problem? In early June, OPEC failed to ratify Saudi Arabia’s proposal to raise the production quota by 1.5 million barrels/day.  The vote was a clear slap to the largest producer, and the member with, by far, the most spare capacity within the cartel – whether it

US Energy Policy – April 2011

Secular Low Nat Gas Prices – The Golden Age of Chemicals Returns to North America  

It’s been fascinating to watch the consequences of the dramatic dislocation of US natural gas prices with both oil and Rest of World gas prices has made the US one of the lowest cost chemical producer in the world, second

Middle East – April 2011

Post Libya -We’re not Done Here!   It’s been less than six weeks since the start of the Libyan uprising, two months since Egypt’s Internet Intifitadah, and distressing headlines continue from all over the region. There is no doubt that there is room for significantly more liberal human rights, but also that each country has

Energy Post Fukushima – April 2011

Energy and Nuclear Power after Fukushima   Obviously, the combined earthquake-tsunami-nuclear “event” has been the major human interest and energy story of the last month. And, while both social and business interests have focused on the desperate efforts to stabilize the reactor complex in Fukushima, the half-million displaced citizens, along with the substantially understated death

Middle East – March 2011

Other Middle East updates   Egypt has postponed final decision on its first nuclear powered investment, in the aftermath of its own turmoil. It is possible that outside (French, Korean, Japanese, and Russian partners), may also go slow on next steps for projects throughout the region (Kuwait, Jordan, UAE). Roughly twenty projects are in various

Renewables – March 2011

Subsidies under Fire   The headlines have not been favorable, particularly for solar programs, over the last month, as Germany, Italy, and France (up to 60% of 2010 demand) have publicly debated the size and cost of their ambitions. Over the weekend, Italy proposed a cap on installations which could limit sales into that market

Geopolitics – March 2011

  Gee, we didn’t see this Coming !!!!!   Well, actually, what the locals are calling the ‘internet intifadah,’ a seismic recipe of: Youth – 50-70% of populations under 30 Unemployment – 10-30%, depending on age and location Inflation – Food “consumes” up to 60% of income in some population segments Inequality – High per

Nuclear – January 2011

Building Boom on the Horizon   

Spot uranium prices have doubled over the past year, as Chinese buyers continue to stockpile product to fuel 25 plants (over 20 GW) now in construction, and part of 60 worldwide in-process projects. With significant additional plans in place, both in China and many other markets (India, Middle

Renewables – January 2011

An ‘Exciting’ Transition Year for Solar   First Solar was, well, first, in 2009, to point out a multi-year transition from scarcity through oversupply and ‘parity’ with conventional electricity sources in an unsubsidized environment. The company had already chosen a ‘go slow’ approach to expanding European capacity, already a wise decision. Despite a very strong

Geopolitics – January 2011

Middle East  Overall, production is stable around 29 million b/d, but marginally higher, as reported, as some producers take advantage of higher prices to add more crude to global supply. Spare capacity remains around 5.5 million b/d.

  A couple weeks ago, the risk to oil prices seemed to be to the upside, neglecting seasonal effects,