While Europe Burns, but Iraq probably a greater Supply Risk I wrote, last month, about the prospect for increasing tensions as outside interests add to Iranian sanctions. Markets are clearly nervous about the low risk, high impact closure of the Straits of Hormuz, through which ships carry up to 17 million b/d – half …
More Carbon-related Fossil Fuel issues (sorry!) Masdar, one of Abu Dhabi’s leading sovereign wealth funds (SWF), plans to award a contract for the construction of a 500 km ‘carbon pipeline,’ to transport CO2 from steel mills and other emitters, for enhanced oil recovery. This would be the first commercial carbon capture and storage project …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics I attended the Gulf Petrochemical Forum in Dubai last month, meeting with chemical and energy executives, along with a regional economist and a cleantech/industrial entrepreneur. I’ll just note some macro/energy issues that may be of interest to readers I have plenty of background to most of the comments below. Feel …
More observations from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, published in late November: The comprehensive study, outlined above, also forecast that global renewable energy output is likely to grow at 3.5-7% compounded rate (dependent on carbon-target scenarios) over the next twenty five years. By 2035, renewables could provide up to a third of all electricity …
Transportation Politics It’s now old news, but surprisingly underreported outside energy circles but….. former Vice President Al Gore acknowledged that his tie-breaking vote to deny an MTBE waiver, while promoting ethanol as the octane enhancement of choice, was “not good policy.” He noted that massive subsidies of unproven, first generation, fuels, was “too much,” …
The Oil Price What to say? The correlation of the oil price with the US dollar (and QE 2 and beyond) continues to astound, but also moves with global equity markets (88% correlation with the S&P, according to Mike Rothman, Cornerstone Analytics). I would argue that the real driver has finally shifted (from …
Brokers and strategic services (e.g. Stratfor, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20111121-syria-iran-and-balance-power-middle-east) have become much louder in their assessment of Iran-related geopolitical risks. With the power vacuum created by the US withdrawal from Iraq, continued turbulence in Iran-backed Syria, and ongoing issues in Egypt, Yemen, and Bahrain, recent events (UK-Iran, explosions at an Iranian missile base, Syrian rockets …
Mid Term Elections Rarely are US political events very important within the Energy Geopolitik, but this week’s mid-term elections have clear implications for several energy matters. With the Republican takeover of the US House of Representatives, several evolving trends are under attack 1) National ‘frac-regulation’ is probably dead. Unless groundwater or other damage …
Global Energy Subsidies – 2010 Every year, the International Energy Agency publishes an assessment of global energy subsidies, updated for price and policy adjustments. I can’t tell if they count everything, but, coincidentally, the US DOE concluded a domestic analysis, which provides some additional information. The IEA estimates over $400 billion in oil/gas/electricity subsidies, worldwide, …
The Capital Crunch about to Reach the Middle East? Now, A well-connected Middle East Consultant has updated its rolling 5 year capital program for the region, which highlights the ‘rubber meets the road’ of these programs. The report segments capital needs into several categories, including crude oil production, natural gas/energy infrastructure, water, and power generation. …