Coals to Newcastle? Finally Nuclear? A Solar Revival? … but where’s the Policy?? Over the past decade, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the most visible proponent of renewable energy in the region, with plans for a Zero Energy City (Masdar), largely funded by one of the country’s leading sovereign wealth funds. Intentions included integrated …
It Gets Worse!! Everybody knows about the regional energy/geopolitical enigmas – subsidized energy, power, and water driving wasteful consumption. Add the forced addition of subsidized oil-fired power as cheaply valued associated gas production tops out. Mix in the usual conflicting politics where each country has its own reason not to ‘play well with others,” and …
Subsidy Reversals Continue – What’s Next?? When you want more of something (solar in 2000-2005), you subsidize it. When you want less of something (Spain, 2009+, Germany?), you eliminate this incentives and, eventually, the subsidies “go negative.” After a decade of outsized subsidies (and despite substantial efforts to reduce in line with improved relative economics), …
As Dan Yergin’s “The Prize” might better summarize: In the Beginning (post WWI), there were those mindless borders, drawn at the Treaty of Paris. Then (1930s) came the wildcatters – Standard Oil, British Petroleum, 5% Gulbenkian, leading (largely colonialist) outsiders into Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and Persia and Iraq. I love the tale where SoCal …
EPA & the Biofuels Back Track The (mostly corn-based ethanol) biofuel industry is, understandably, quite disappointed in the confirmation of earlier rumors that the renewable fuel mandate would be scaled back in 2014-5. The revised proposal trims roughly 10% from the ‘first generation’ volume, roughly in line with lower US gasoline consumption since enactment of …
Gee, we didn’t see this Coming (!!!!) – Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Oman – coming, did we? Well, actually, what the locals are calling the ‘internet intifadah,’ a seismic recipe of: Youth – 50-70% of populations under 30 Unemployment – 10-30%, depending on age and location Inflation – Food “consumes” up …
The Oil Price So Brent has retreated 25% from $126 to ‘below par’ in less than two and a half months, and WTI, the US benchmark, is 20% lower over the same timeframe. What’s changed? Then (March 22) Amidst rising Iranian concerns and news that the IEA would recommend release of crude/product from various Strategic …
The Oil Price So Brent has retreated 25% from $126 to ‘below par’ in less than two and a half months, and WTI, the US benchmark, is 20% lower over the same timeframe. What’s changed? Then (March 22) Amidst rising Iranian concerns and news that the IEA would recommend release of crude/product from various Strategic …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics – Continued Confusion but Market Tightness Overstated Our view on the 2012 oil market has been that higher prices would be more justified by actual outages (Sudan, Yemen, Russia, Syria) than perceived disruptions (Iran). And so it has been, to date, abetted by product dislocations in the US. Add to supply …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics – “It’s Complicated” During late 2011, analysts (and experts!) were cutting their oil price and demand forecasts. Less than 60 days into the new year, they’re only partly right (or already partly wrong). Demand is, arguably, even more concerning than expected, with Spain/Portugal consumption lower by high single digits, and US …