Transportation – Inter-Concept Competition Coming? US gasoline prices have retreated from early May highs (see above), but are likely to move with underlying crude as the next spike unfolds. Meanwhile, auto, truck, and engine manufacturers rush to develop battery and natural gas-based transport options, as the US oil/gas ratio continues well over 20x (versus historical …
Renewables – Silent Spring for Solar The investment community has almost never gotten it right on solar demand — forecasting woe in every out year since 2008 — until now, when the threat of a mid-year reset of the German subsidy program, combined with the just-passed demand-stabilization (read ‘regulated’) installation rate in Italy, has taken …
Middle East and Euro Geopolitics This month’s copy of Sustainable Energy and Geopolitics, published by MEES (Middle East Economic Survey), takes a new turn — almost entirely devoted to the State of the Nuclear Power World, post Fukushima. This is an important statement, given the region’s plans to build up to 20 nuclear power plants, …
It’s been a strange month — plenty of reasons to be MORE bullish on conventional energy fundamentals, but a clear regression in investor sentiment, reflected in crude prices. My view is that there should be an oil price spike, but that the last six months are not ‘it,’ as fear, violence, weather, and QE2 (for …
Renewables – Is the “End Game” next for Solar and Wind companies???? One doesn’t have to survey too many sell side analysts (or their traders/sales folks) to conclude that the Renewable Energy Sector is a Giant Hedge Fund Hotel. A former Loomis Hedge Fund manager devotes nearly all his time to the group. He’s not …
Ethanol is a Growth Chemical, but not from Corn I never thought I’d see the day – untaxed moonshine is worth as much as the drinkable stuff. But a few anecdotes: Brazil, the largest ethanol consumerism the world, with the lowest cost process, is short, and getting shorter. High sugar prices are forcing ethanol economics …
OPEC Fails to “Expand the Quota” – What’s the Problem? In early June, OPEC failed to ratify Saudi Arabia’s proposal to raise the production quota by 1.5 million barrels/day. The vote was a clear slap to the largest producer, and the member with, by far, the most spare capacity within the cartel – whether it …
Renewables Anecdotes During the “Chinese Wind Power Boom” for 2005-9, the country installed almost 40 GW of capacity, but, according to critics, only connected about two thirds to the grid. It’s getting better. By the end of March, over 80% has been grid-connected, according to the China State Grid Corporation. Now that ‘they’re getting …
Capital Spending is Back! More Domestic Winners from the US Shale Gas Boom – “Downstream” Capital Spending is Back Low natural gas liquids prices, due in part to the shale boom, have turned North America into one of the lowest cost suppliers of chemicals, worldwide. Robust earnings results from Dow, Lyondell Basell, and …
This time it’s Different (!) At a macro level, the reality of higher gasoline prices is not quite as severe as prior cycles. While much higher crude oil prices have brought misery to drivers (including truckers), much lower natural gas prices are bringing pleasure to many of the same consumers. From 2004-7, higher oil …