The Poly Silicon Glut Silicon prices are crashing. After five years of accelerating investment, spot prices as much as 20x leading edge costs, the rough estimate is that there is 2x as much ‘PV silicon’ as needed for the 2011 end market demand. Since most steps downstream of silicon have very low capital intensity, most …
Renewables With the recent revival of one of Boston’s Hall of Fame financiers, I checked into the SEC’s FAQ for the following: “What is a Ponzi scheme? A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that involves the payment of purported returns to existing investors from funds contributed by new investors. Ponzi scheme organizers often solicit …
Global Energy Subsidies – 2010 Every year, the International Energy Agency publishes an assessment of global energy subsidies, updated for price and policy adjustments. I can’t tell if they count everything, but, coincidentally, the US DOE concluded a domestic analysis, which provides some additional information. The IEA estimates over $400 billion in oil/gas/electricity subsidies, worldwide, …
The Capital Crunch about to Reach the Middle East? Now, A well-connected Middle East Consultant has updated its rolling 5 year capital program for the region, which highlights the ‘rubber meets the road’ of these programs. The report segments capital needs into several categories, including crude oil production, natural gas/energy infrastructure, water, and power generation. …
Subsidy light or Subsidy Lies? And in the realm of ‘why should I believe this.’ Iran President Ahmadinejad claimed, this month, that, since the (sanction-related) dramatic reduction in fuel subsidies in late 2010, gasoline consumption has fallen 50% (!) and, over a five year period, is now 20% lower, despite a doubling in automobile population.
Implications of A Different type of Entitlement Program I’ve written about the insidious circle of Middle East’s domestic energy subsidies – cheap water/energy requires cheap oil/gas which drives sharp consumption/waste. In some fashion, this is understandable/necessary so satisfy social needs in high poverty populations. However, the IEA reports that 80% of global energy subsidies benefit …
“Can’t they just Get Along?” The Gulf Cooperation Council held an Unconventional Gas Symposium in early October. While experts claim that the region contains 2500 TCF of potential shale gas, outsiders bemoan the lack of expertise, water (necessary for fracking), infrastructure (day rates for rigs are triple the US), and price/economics (incremental gas prices are …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics From the headlines, supply is improving, with Libya’s steady return to service. The country claims over 500 kbd, although the sum of operator figures don’t quite add up. On the other hand, Iraq’s nearterm ramp has stagnated amidst the ongoing lag in takeaway/infrastructure. IOCs/contractors are having trouble developing bids to the …
Venture Capital – Chasing the Wrong Bus?? US Venture Capital funding of cleantech fell 55%, YoY, in Q3. However, the ‘efficiency’ segment grew 6% in the same period on 21% more deals. Reasons for these divergent trends abound, but include (a) the mis-fit of the VC model concepts that do not exploit Moore’s Law, …
Energy Contradictions Continue We’ve written about the insidious, unintended, consequences of dramatic and inflexible subsidies, nowhere more n evidence than the MidEast, where sub $1 natural gas, sub nickel water and power costs, while well intentioned for the masses, are proving untenable over the longer term. Add to this the social unrest which argues …