Light at the End of a L-O-O-N-G Tunnel??? Cold weather aside, the multi-year outlook for US natural gas supply looks fairly glutted, leading to a “BTU Bargain” as far as the eye can see. Even off the bottom, the 2015-2020 futures trade, between $4-4.50 per million BTUs – about a quarter of energy parity with …
As Dan Yergin’s “The Prize” might better summarize: In the Beginning (post WWI), there were those mindless borders, drawn at the Treaty of Paris. Then (1930s) came the wildcatters – Standard Oil, British Petroleum, 5% Gulbenkian, leading (largely colonialist) outsiders into Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and Persia and Iraq. I love the tale where SoCal …
The Long Road from Fukushima We might be early, but look what’ s setting up for a return to favor! Uranium, selling at half its all time (and 5 year) high, seems to be perking up. While some unfavorable fundamentals are still in place, a number of more positive trends are underway. Briefly: Bearish …
I attended the First Annual MIT Water Summit last week. Since water, unlike hydrocarbons, is essentially neither created nor destroyed, lots of consumption and supply-based metrics can be quite confusing. First, the usual trivia of interest to water watchers: The production of 1 cup of Starbucks coffee is tied to consumption of 200 liters of water. …
Investors and operators are flocking to the region in search of cheap feedstock for refining, chemicals, and energy intensive industrial opportunities. While it is difficult to imagine shortages and delays in such an infrastructure-rich region (Keystone XL excepted!), front end projects are already falling victim to sticker shock (permitting another matter!). It’s been 25 …
Fukushima Tragedy Drives Expensive Renewables Policy Under a new incentive program since mid last year, Japanese solar installations are poised to triple from 2012 to 7 GW. This is well ahead of estimates of “only a double” as recently as summer The average Japanese electricity tariff (2013) is around $0.30/kwh, trailing only a few …
Kazakhstan’s Kashagan – “…the downside of Elephant Fields” “In the beginning” (discovered in 2000), Kashagan was the most prolific oil discovery since the North Sea/Alaska fields of the late 1960s. However, as we suspect from the arduous journey to startup – high sulfur, land locked, frontier, with rudderless leadership and a corrupt resource host – …
Its not news that the Shale Revolution has the potential to bring the Glory Days back to the US Chemical Industry. – IF the industry doesn’t kill a cyclical AND secular opportunity by overbuilding domestic capacity. There are almost dozen mega (billion pound or more) expansion projects in the planning stages, but this has been …
EPA & the Biofuels Back Track The (mostly corn-based ethanol) biofuel industry is, understandably, quite disappointed in the confirmation of earlier rumors that the renewable fuel mandate would be scaled back in 2014-5. The revised proposal trims roughly 10% from the ‘first generation’ volume, roughly in line with lower US gasoline consumption since enactment of …
What’s Bigger? Gas or Renewables – Fired Power? The International Energy Agency (IEA), traditionally the most conservative and hydrocarbon-based energy forecaster, now believes that, by 2018, power generation (not capacity!) from renewables will exceed total that of natural gas and twice the size of nuclear power. (http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/june/name,39156,en.html) – accounting for a quarter of global generation. …