Oil Markets and Geopolitics – “It’s Complicated” During late 2011, analysts (and experts!) were cutting their oil price and demand forecasts. Less than 60 days into the new year, they’re only partly right (or already partly wrong). Demand is, arguably, even more concerning than expected, with Spain/Portugal consumption lower by high single digits, and US …
Biofuels – Another (not unexpected) Commercialization Disappointment Last week, Amyris, one of the most favored synthetic biology/biofuels entries, substantially cut its production forecast for 2012. The company has commenced operation in a ‘commercial scale’ facility but has been unable to improve product yield and quality of high value specialty chemicals. In general, the sector players …
Solar Economics Continue to Improve Lastly, a couple comments on ‘old fashioned renewables,’ i.e. solar and wind. Global solar installations rose about 10% in 2011, although module revenues probably fell over 10% (and inventories exploded in 2H ’11!). Italy surpassed Germany as the single largest market, despite dramatic cuts in both subsidies although, without subsidies. …
Watch this Space but keep your money in your wallet! It’s still early, but a number of practitioners of ‘second generation’ cellulosic chemistry are nearing key milestones. GEVO, which has been renovating corn-to-ethanol refineries to produce higher valued chemicals/fuels, should make commercial volumes in its first facility by mid-year. Zeachem (private) has started …
The answer might surprise you. An enterprising research analyst has determined, from grass roots work, that significant funding behind the anti-fracking movement comes from the Middle East – Saudi, UAE, and Qatari funds. Apparently, the prospect of significant oil and gas production has caught the interest of the world’s largest producers of each hydrocarbon. …
While Europe Burns, but Iraq probably a greater Supply Risk I wrote, last month, about the prospect for increasing tensions as outside interests add to Iranian sanctions. Markets are clearly nervous about the low risk, high impact closure of the Straits of Hormuz, through which ships carry up to 17 million b/d – half …
More Carbon-related Fossil Fuel issues (sorry!) Masdar, one of Abu Dhabi’s leading sovereign wealth funds (SWF), plans to award a contract for the construction of a 500 km ‘carbon pipeline,’ to transport CO2 from steel mills and other emitters, for enhanced oil recovery. This would be the first commercial carbon capture and storage project …
Oil Markets and Geopolitics I attended the Gulf Petrochemical Forum in Dubai last month, meeting with chemical and energy executives, along with a regional economist and a cleantech/industrial entrepreneur. I’ll just note some macro/energy issues that may be of interest to readers I have plenty of background to most of the comments below. Feel …
Not dead yet…. Cheap natural gas is not the only headwind for the renewables uber alles perspective/trend. The roadmap to improved efficiency seems clear, and long-lived, both for gasoline and diesel fuels. While automakers only seem (generally) to develop more fuel efficient vehicles under the greatest duress (i.e. mandates), there is plenty of opportunity, …
Where the European Union “Works” This brings to mind another observation. While it’s clear from other news that the financial concept of the European Union is structurally flawed, there are real operational successes on the energy front, with/without budget-busting subsidies. Continent-wide integration of the power grid, PLUS the ample availability of low cost, rapid …