Brokers and strategic services (e.g. Stratfor, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20111121-syria-iran-and-balance-power-middle-east) have become much louder in their assessment of Iran-related geopolitical risks. With the power vacuum created by the US withdrawal from Iraq, continued turbulence in Iran-backed Syria, and ongoing issues in Egypt, Yemen, and Bahrain, recent events (UK-Iran, explosions at an Iranian missile base, Syrian rockets into Israel) take on added meaning. Will Israel act on its own? Amidst another round of sanctions, and the usual resistance from Chinese and Russian interests, the decibel level is rising here, and is likely a part of higher oil prices despite punk global demand.
Add to this the signals of an end to Chinese tightening and Indian destocking and, although the price forecast trend is modestly downward (more Libyan crude, potential for higher nonOPEC output, lower OECD demand), I think the “security of supply’ risk is more to the upside, especially if anything at all disrupts Middle East output in 2012