One of the better presentations at the MIT Water Summit last month focussed on the upper bound of water costs – energy-intensive desalination which, at up to $0.65/cubic meter (a quarter of a cent per gallon), define the high end of the value of water resource at a level which was surprisingly low relative to, say, oil. The presenter argued that the view that “the next war will be fought over water” was so far off base as to be a joke since, for instance, the cost to desalinate or buy fresh water at the same price would run about $15/capita in Israel, or $150/capita based on US retail water costs. Not worth a Shooting War (although, of course, the World has Gone to War for much, much, less!).
The Israeli water ‘crisis’ (1998-2010), wrought by growth, drought, and shared/limited resource among several neighbors, is usually a poster child for the global problem. Well, it appears to me that the case is a poster child for the global opportunity — plenty of opportunity for conservation plus the relative ease with which desalination can fill the gaps. Oh, and through innovation it appears that costs will fall 20% when the worlds largest facility came on stream in late last year.
In rough numbers, using average electricity consumption/intensity, leading edge scale and process delivers drinking water for about $1.50/1000 gallons (“factory gate”).
Similar to other countries, the plurality of water demand is tied to agricultural needs. However, both overall demand and public/domestic drinking water consumption are well below global averages (and the UN “water poverty level”) in this, a fairly prosperous economy. Higher prices, improved ag practices, and several restrictions (no hoses for car washing!) are largely responsible. Can this work in the US? Well, actually, yes. Las Vegas is now restricting front yards for new construction (!).
And now, thanks to the potential for 50 TCF (enough to power 100% of domestic electricity demand for 100 years) in offshore natural gas discoveries (you wondered when I was going to get to the energy part of this conversation!), the cost of electricity (currently 50% above US average) for desalination is about to cut into water costs again.
The marginal cost of desalinated water is falling – both due to technology and input costs. It may actually fall below the cost to deliver fresh water from certain US western sources, where piping/distribution costs are surprisingly high. The energy/variable cost of municipal wastewater treatment is significantly cheaper – by as much as 90% for ‘easier treatments’ (industrial treatment costs more…), but the re-use of treated wastewater for gray applications – admittedly at a cost due to re-plumbing/infrastructure costs – is in its infancy. Environmentalists point the finger at tracking, industry, etc, but the greatest opportunity for more efficient water usage lies elsewhere.
Of course, the issue is front and center as the US West struggles with the worst drought since the 1970s. Despite very heavy agricultural use, the state is only ‘a bit above average’ as a water consumer. It’s just that the state, like its neighbors, relies on snowpack to generate both useful water and hydro power, eschewing additional storage or other sources, in part for environmental reasons. A desalination facility, built in Santa Barbara in the late 1980s, has rarely run. And the use of gray water, as elsewhere, is both an opportunity and a challenge.
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Well done, as usual! Love the website.