Wind
My father has a t-shirt that reads “from ‘zero to 80 in nothing flat.’
In the beginning (2005), China’s wind plans were modest — from a standing start to 20 GW installed by 2010. Having exceeded that target during 2009 (with 13.5 GW installed), the 2020 goal moved up to 150 GW. Last week, a Chinese official forecast 300 GW by 2020. Wow. Well, about 80 Chinese wind turbine manufacturers include two in the top five, including one of the first offshore, direct drive offerings, currently in pilot. The problem with offshore wind is that the maintenance calls are very expensive. Most maintenance issues focus on the gearbox. Direct drive technology is more expensive up front, but a lot less expensive over time. Siemens and Repower (Germany) are other early entrants into this high potential market.
US wind installations are down almost 60% YoY, and European wind demand has also slowed, despite better economics (than solar). Some believe this is due to growing NIMBY issues for onshore projects. Next year should be better, but, as noted, Chinese activity, which is running out double the US (once the leader), will probably widen its lead over the next few years.
First Wind (“WIND”), a US project developer with activity in the Northeast, Oregon, Utah, and Hawaii, failed to go public after a road show and price cut. The contractual arrangements and accounting for these ‘renewable utilities’ is just too complex in the US, where Purchase Power Agreements (PPAs) are more complicated than feed-in-tariffs (FITs). In addition, most of the European ‘renewable utilities’ such as Iberdrola Renewables, EDF, and ENEL Renewables pay a reasonable, and potentially growing, dividend. However, in a sloppy electricity market, and with such cheap natural gas, this isn’t easy.