Renewables Anecdotes
During the “Chinese Wind Power Boom” for 2005-9, the country installed almost 40 GW of capacity, but, according to critics, only connected about two thirds to the grid. It’s getting better. By the end of March, over 80% has been grid-connected, according to the China State Grid Corporation. Now that ‘they’re getting it right (and making it more difficult to permit smaller/less economic projects),’ the plan to add another 110 GW by 2020 is looking more realistic.
The pressure on solar fundamentals continue, under both the pressure of excess capacity and falling European rebates/subsidies. The finalization of a revamped Italian program does provide some certainty and a sensible structure to the world’s second largest market. The net is a slightly faster, but staged, decline in Feed in Tariffs (FITs), and incentives for local content. While sentiment and 2H 2011 demand is likely to improve, the market is still greatly oversupplied and at risk for single digit demand growth in 2012. . Module prices could fall 20% by this time next year, although the margin squeeze – downstream of polysilicon – might not be as bad as one might think. The march to ‘grid parity (before backup and grid costs) continues, especially for off-grid/distributed applications. Our reminder is that the keys to significant market growth, probably by 2013, are formal commitment to large scale programs in China – where government officials continue to raise 2015 and 2020 targets for domestic solar – as well as continued growth in the US and takeoff in India.