Still Trial and Error!
Unconventional resource leaders believe that traditional petroleum geophysics, developed over 150 years, needs a makeover to most effectively exploit shale/tight reservoirs. The behavior of hydrocarbons in extremely low porosity rock may require an understanding of hydrocarbon, water, and rock surface behavior at a near atomic level – much like the difference between Newtonian and Quantum physics. Research is underway in a number of universities and, probably, a few of the major oil service and international energy firms. But, in the view of one executive, “what we’ve achieved so far is largely due to trial and error. What we know about how hydrocarbons behave in shales is probably in the 2nd or 3rd inning.”
The prize? Recovery rates for oil/liquids from shales are still in the 5-10% range. By the 5th or 6th inning, is 20% or more possible from the same wells in the same resource?