Investors and operators are flocking to the region in search of cheap feedstock for refining, chemicals, and energy intensive industrial opportunities. While it is difficult to imagine shortages and delays in such an infrastructure-rich region (Keystone XL excepted!), front end projects are already falling victim to sticker shock (permitting another matter!). It’s been 25 years since the last round of world scale petrochemical projects, 30 removed from a grass roots refinery, and now six to ten ethylene crackers, two to six propylene splitters, assorted methanol and fertilizer plants dot the planning/permitting landscape. Oh, and the arbitrage of USGC refined products and export markets is sure to drive an additional capital cycle in the downstream.
So far, several projects are stalled (or on a board-level bubble), and not waiting for Greenhouse Gas or other compliance matters. Enterprise’s propylene (PDH) project may cost twice what Petrologistics (PDH) invested (adjusted for existing infrastructure) on a similar project (2010 startup), and PDH is reluctant to pursue its second plant (2017 target) at these capital projections. Last week, Shell abandoned a Gas to Liquids (GTL) project, budgeted at $13.5 billion, after “tweaking” that estimate to $20 billion.
…and we haven’t even started final permitting (much less breaking ground) on all those ethylene projects! In five years, we’re either going to observe fewer projects or some really poor capital allocation.