AntiDumping Penalties on Chinese Solar Cells
Well, it only took about seven months for the USDOJ to impose penalties on one element of the solar PC supply chain. Following on a previous finding, the agency levied 31-250% surcharges on imported cells, or modules containing Chinese cells. Larger producers who provided data/defense were generally levied at the lower end of the range, while smaller producers whose information was inadequate were subject to the higher penalties.
Chinese producers have anticipated this for some time, and have been circumventing anticipated levies (which are retroactive by about 90 days) by sourcing Taiwanese cells (not penalized) – paying up but then using lower cost/subsidies to value silicon, waf3s, and the final module product. US interests are pursuing similar charges against module providers.
All well and good, but exactly who is this protecting? Less than 5% of all US PV consumption is domestically sourced, and the time to impose charges, if justified, was before Evergreen, Energy Conversion, and others went broke. Meanwhile, over half, and an increasing percentage of PV installation costs are domestically sourced frames and labor. Job protection? I doubt it.
How do you feel now that you know this?
In recent weeks, both Solazyme and Chevron Lummus have provided 100% green biodiesel fuels (no French Fries, as far as I can tell…) for commercial aircraft use, to United Airlines and, probably, other airlines. Not cheaper than jet fuel, at about $5/gallon, but it seems to work. So far so good. While most of the ‘biocarbon’ processors (Amyris, GEVO, Solazyme, KIOR are at the tip of a growing iceberg) are working on higher value chemical opportunities, the jet fuel market seems to be a particular favorite – plenty of Navy/Air Force support, higher prices, and a somewhat more manageable market than ground transportation fuels. The first of several key commercial plant startups (GEVO) is now underway, which could de-risk a series of bio-based chemicals and fuels by early 2013.
And this just in from the Middle East!
I’ve been reading the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) for almost fifteen years, but last week’s commentary on renewables, at three full pages, was the most extensive, and detailed, ever. The commentary, as confirmation an extension of my observations after visiting the region last December, was revealing in its detail, a sign of commitment – and urgency. For instance:
Several OPEC countries now have renewable goals, ranging from 7-20% by 2020-2030. Qatar (10% of power by 2018), UAE (7% by 2020), Kuwait (10% by 2020), Saudi has announced 41 GW — a third of capacity — target by 2032, roughly split 50-50 between solar PV and solar thermal. Saudi also has the greatest need -burning between 700 and 1000 kbd (7-10% of production, and rising) of straight crude, valued around $4.50/bbl, for domestic electricity. Saudi has other problems — its grid is wholly inadequate for the volatility of renewables, (hence the interest in higher cost solar thermal). Meanwhile, First Solar has opened a Middle East sales office. Sunpower, Suntech, and Ying Li are increasingly active. At 2 GW/year for 20 years (assuming the mix), Saudi’s interest, alone, is similar to the current US market.
Japan – The new Italy – in more ways than Economic
The Japanese government is on the verge of implementing an extremely attractive solar subsidy for residential and small utility solar systems – up to $0.50/kwh in Feed in Tariffs (FIT), as part of the supply response to the Fukushima/nuclear tragedy. This could easily replace Italy’s near elimination of domestic subsidies.
For reference, Japan’s installed solar capacity at the end of 2011 was 4.5 GW (less than 2% of total). The country expects to add 2.3 GW by March 2013, and has a goal of 28 GW installed by 2020, with a theoretical potential of 230 GW.
Surprisingly, Japan has one of the highest insolation readings (solar per area) in the world.
The European Union has proposed the elimination of ALL on continent subsidies, for all sorts of obvious reasons. As reported, however, subsidies are largely irrelevant these days, as many projects in nearly all EU countries are economic without any incentives.
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