Biofuels – Another (not unexpected) Commercialization Disappointment
Last week, Amyris, one of the most favored synthetic biology/biofuels entries, substantially cut its production forecast for 2012. The company has commenced operation in a ‘commercial scale’ facility but has been unable to improve product yield and quality of high value specialty chemicals. In general, the sector players must ALL prove both process and economics in a commercial environment, and the rule, so far, ahs been “very late and much more expensive than plan.” I wrote of key milestones last month, and simpler approaches (GEVO, Celanese) are closer to being on track, but the sector is entering a critical period in 2012-3. As/if these companies complete and operate a commercial facility on plan, sentiment could improve significantly – probably closer to 2013.
Enerkem, a Canadian company which claims to economically produce fuels from waste (wood chips, telephone poles, etc), has filed for a public offering. In the wake of the Amyris shortfall, interest in Enerkem could reflect investor patience with ‘pre-commercial’ opportunities.