More observations from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, published in late November:
The comprehensive study, outlined above, also forecast that global renewable energy output is likely to grow at 3.5-7% compounded rate (dependent on carbon-target scenarios) over the next twenty five years. By 2035, renewables could provide up to a third of all electricity and one-sixth of heating demand. Total investment around $5.7 trillion — not quite double what ExxonMobil has forecast to be the required investment in oil and gas exploration and development over a similar period. By comparison, Shell’s “Scenarios to 2050” – a really interesting document, available on the company web site – suggests a scenario under which 60% of electricity could be sourced by non fossil fuels by 2050.
Is China subsidizing its solar industry? Perhaps not? Ying Li (YGE) has won a bid to become one of three suppliers to its $3 billion Golden Sun (http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/here-comes-chinas-3b-golden-sun-projects/) program — at $1.60/watt — installed, compared to its $2.60/watt quote for US projects. If the government is subsidizing its exports, it is even more aggressive in funding domestic programs.
The two fastest growth solar markets for 2011? US installations may double. Chinese installations could quadruple – and pass the RPS-driven US market by 2013, as prices fall at least 25% over the next two years (psst – fully loaded, US, gas based electricity rates are down over 10% this year).