Middle East and Euro Geopolitics
This month’s copy of Sustainable Energy and Geopolitics, published by MEES (Middle East Economic Survey), takes a new turn — almost entirely devoted to the State of the Nuclear Power World, post Fukushima. This is an important statement, given the region’s plans to build up to 20 nuclear power plants, generally onstream by 2020-5. To review, the Middle East/OPEC Cycle of Life has long been “cheap gas/oil for cheap power for desalinated water for peaceful citizenry. With recent unrest, the most convenient solution has been to layer more subsidized lifestyle benefits (read, electricity, water, etc) into a badly mispriced economy. The result is a power market (at sub-nickel/kwh prices) with 7-8% CAGR (3% worldwide), requiring ever more internal consumption of $100 oil (and $8-ish nat gas) at under $10/bbl equivalents. The region has been working to develop both nuclear and renewable power sources, with increasingly concrete plans to ‘go live’ over the next decade and a half. However, the Japanese/TEPCO tragedy/disaster have, naturally, put this into doubt. The MEES analysis goes to great lengths to conclude that the Japanese disaster was one of mismanagement of an antiquated design, implemented in a poorly selected site. “It Won’t Happen to Us.” It is too early to tell if there is a measurable delay in Middle East, Indian, or Chinese nuclear intentions, but the alternative, continued below market pricing (hence above market demand growth) of an increasingly expensive energy source, seems likely, as the roster of more definitive delays/abandonments (Japan, Europe, US?) grows longer. MEES also notes that, ‘this time,’ the capital budgets of most member-nations are more directed to infrastructure – power, water/treatment, and other infrastructure – than new oil projects, with obvious tensions — hopefully more energy efficiency, but also more social unrest if new pricing policies become necessary to manage consumption.
So here’s a crazy way to deal with outsized Middle Eastern secular demand growth, resulting from egregious subsidies — let’s import coal and use new (very expensive) technology to close the widening power gap. Yes, the UAE, usually smarter than this, has hired McKinsey to explore ‘clean coal’ to electricity opportunities. UAE produces no coal, and has boasted, for several years, of its commitment to develop a Zero Carbon City. Not quite in the same zip code, but on a faster track to potential disaster, is Germany’s post-Fukushima path. To recap – Nuclear power provides almost a quarter of the country’s electricity. Prime Minister Merkel had invested significant political capital to develop a plan to extend the lives of seven old nuclear power plants beyond their scheduled retirement. However, a poor electoral outcome followed the events in Japan and now, having already moved to cut solar subsidies, the government finds itself ready to shutter ALL of its nuclear power (except for modest backup capacity) by 2022, replacing shuttered generators with (a) more renewables, (b) imported nuclear power from France and, most likely, natural gas from Russia. The German utility industry is caught in a giant vise — peak pricing, where they make most of their profits – has already deteriorated substantially due to excess mid-day solar/wind generation. The “plan” is to accelerate offshore wind, with all-in construction costs up to 4.3 million Euros/MW, or 6-7x the capital cost (before disadvantaged efficiency/on-line considerations!) of a gas peaker. German nuclear operators are considering suits to recover losses from truncated service lives. Is a nationalization of the German utility industry next? More natural gas (German officials visited Moscow this week), probably sourced from Russia or, just as bad, Northern Africa? What to do? Perhaps take a deep breath and consider the long term issues outside the political turmoil?
The practical bottom line is that natural gas, the speculative beneficiary after the Japanese tragedies, will probably be the lead replacement, pulling more solar and offshore wind along the way. Regional natural gas producers/distributors, Russian vendors, and Anyone’s (US-based?) LNG stand to benefit. Nearby to the Middle East, Stratfor (“CIA in newsletter format”) reports that Shell is closing shop in Kazakhstan, after investing billions in its portion of a 30 billion barrel (“Kashagan”) project in the Caspian Sea. Some aspect of the project (365 kbd by 2014 and over 1.5 mmbd eventually), troubled by technical challenges, cost overruns, and resultant Kazakh fiscal volleyball, for almost a decade, could face another significant delay. There is no confirmation of the report, but this should be watched.