Russia
Interesting that in a world of $80+ oil, Iran has added to its fleet of leased tankers, for storage of produced crude. This is consistent with the widening light heavy spreads (reflecting excess supply of lower grade product. There are anecdotes, from multiple sources, which point to buyer reluctance to purchase Iranian crude, along with reduced sale of gasoline to that country. Analysts have been watching for this as a sign that the most effective sanction activity might be both subtle (no headlines) and effective, as the country remains significantly short of refined product capacity and, of course, dependent on the sale of relatively heavy grades into a well supplied international market.
The Russian government is making progress toward some form of new fiscal terms for its oil industry. The current export tax, essentially 90% above $29 oil, is clearly onerous and has gradually eroded reinvestment economics (after the easy oil of 2002-6). The tax is also revenue, not earnings, based, further discouragement for new, more capital intensive projects which, from experts, are not the high quality of legacy Western Siberian production. The challenge, for Russia, is that the current fiscal regime provides over 30% percent of government proceeds, but compared to almost 40% in 2008 at higher oil prices. Lower taxes to promote/incent future resource development have obvious implications for the country’s balance sheet.